Track Record

Real historical backtest results — not a marketing claim, the actual numbers.

These are walk-forward backtests: each historical prediction was computed using only data that would have been available BEFORE that match's kickoff, so there's no hindsight bias. This is retrospective testing against past seasons, not a live running scoreboard of predictions made going forward. A run with fewer than 30 evaluated fixtures is flagged below as statistically inconclusive rather than presented as a confident result.

Astrology (KP) astrology_39_2025

kp_horary_v1

Hit Rate

31.9%

115 / 361 correct

Wilson 95% CI

27.3% – 36.8%

Mean Brier Score

0.705

lower is better; 0.667 = uninformed guess

Fixtures

380

19 inconclusive at prediction time

Astrology (KP) astrology_39_2024

kp_horary_v1

Hit Rate

31.3%

113 / 361 correct

Wilson 95% CI

26.7% – 36.3%

Mean Brier Score

0.715

lower is better; 0.667 = uninformed guess

Fixtures

380

19 inconclusive at prediction time

Astrology (KP) astrology_39_2023

kp_horary_v1

Hit Rate

29.7%

96 / 323 correct

Wilson 95% CI

25% – 34.9%

Mean Brier Score

0.729

lower is better; 0.667 = uninformed guess

Fixtures

380

57 inconclusive at prediction time

Empirical (Poisson) poisson_v3_39_2023

poisson_v3

Hit Rate

51.5%

168 / 326 correct

Wilson 95% CI

46.1% – 56.9%

Mean Brier Score

0.604

lower is better; 0.667 = uninformed guess

Fixtures

380

54 inconclusive at prediction time

Empirical (Poisson) poisson_v3_135_2024

poisson_v3

Hit Rate

54.6%

173 / 317 correct

Wilson 95% CI

49.1% – 60%

Mean Brier Score

0.603

lower is better; 0.667 = uninformed guess

Fixtures

380

63 inconclusive at prediction time

Empirical (Poisson) poisson_v3_61_2024

poisson_v3

Hit Rate

56.5%

144 / 255 correct

Wilson 95% CI

50.3% – 62.4%

Mean Brier Score

0.579

lower is better; 0.667 = uninformed guess

Fixtures

307

52 inconclusive at prediction time

Empirical (Poisson) poisson_v3_78_2024

poisson_v3

Hit Rate

43.1%

109 / 253 correct

Wilson 95% CI

37.1% – 49.2%

Mean Brier Score

0.677

lower is better; 0.667 = uninformed guess

Fixtures

308

55 inconclusive at prediction time

Empirical (Poisson) poisson_v3_140_2024

poisson_v3

Hit Rate

45%

145 / 322 correct

Wilson 95% CI

39.7% – 50.5%

Mean Brier Score

0.63

lower is better; 0.667 = uninformed guess

Fixtures

380

58 inconclusive at prediction time

Empirical (Poisson) poisson_v3_2_2024

poisson_v3

Hit Rate

45.1%

37 / 82 correct

Wilson 95% CI

34.8% – 55.9%

Mean Brier Score

0.717

lower is better; 0.667 = uninformed guess

Fixtures

269

187 inconclusive at prediction time

Empirical (Poisson) poisson_v3_39_2024

poisson_v3

Hit Rate

47.7%

157 / 329 correct

Wilson 95% CI

42.4% – 53.1%

Mean Brier Score

0.632

lower is better; 0.667 = uninformed guess

Fixtures

380

51 inconclusive at prediction time

Empirical (Poisson) poisson_135_2024

poisson_v2

Hit Rate

53.9%

171 / 317 correct

Wilson 95% CI

48.4% – 59.4%

Mean Brier Score

0.603

lower is better; 0.667 = uninformed guess

Fixtures

380

63 inconclusive at prediction time

Empirical (Poisson) poisson_2_2024

poisson_v2

Hit Rate

46.3%

38 / 82 correct

Wilson 95% CI

36% – 57.1%

Mean Brier Score

0.744

lower is better; 0.667 = uninformed guess

Fixtures

269

187 inconclusive at prediction time

Empirical (Poisson) poisson_78_2024

poisson_v2

Hit Rate

43.1%

109 / 253 correct

Wilson 95% CI

37.1% – 49.2%

Mean Brier Score

0.679

lower is better; 0.667 = uninformed guess

Fixtures

308

55 inconclusive at prediction time

Empirical (Poisson) poisson_61_2024

poisson_v2

Hit Rate

56.9%

145 / 255 correct

Wilson 95% CI

50.7% – 62.8%

Mean Brier Score

0.584

lower is better; 0.667 = uninformed guess

Fixtures

307

52 inconclusive at prediction time

Empirical (Poisson) poisson_140_2024

poisson_v2

Hit Rate

46%

148 / 322 correct

Wilson 95% CI

40.6% – 51.4%

Mean Brier Score

0.633

lower is better; 0.667 = uninformed guess

Fixtures

380

58 inconclusive at prediction time

Empirical (Poisson) poisson_39_2024

poisson_v2

Hit Rate

47.7%

157 / 329 correct

Wilson 95% CI

42.4% – 53.1%

Mean Brier Score

0.632

lower is better; 0.667 = uninformed guess

Fixtures

380

51 inconclusive at prediction time

Empirical (Poisson) poisson_neither_pl_2025

poisson_v2

Hit Rate

49.5%

160 / 323 correct

Wilson 95% CI

44.1% – 55%

Mean Brier Score

0.649

lower is better; 0.667 = uninformed guess

Fixtures

380

57 inconclusive at prediction time

Empirical (Poisson) poisson_dixoncoles_only_pl_2025

poisson_v2

Hit Rate

49.5%

160 / 323 correct

Wilson 95% CI

44.1% – 55%

Mean Brier Score

0.648

lower is better; 0.667 = uninformed guess

Fixtures

380

57 inconclusive at prediction time

Empirical (Poisson) poisson_decay_only_pl_2025

poisson_v2

Hit Rate

48%

155 / 323 correct

Wilson 95% CI

42.6% – 53.4%

Mean Brier Score

0.648

lower is better; 0.667 = uninformed guess

Fixtures

380

57 inconclusive at prediction time

Empirical (Poisson) poisson_v2_pl_2025

poisson_v2

Hit Rate

48.3%

156 / 323 correct

Wilson 95% CI

42.9% – 53.7%

Mean Brier Score

0.647

lower is better; 0.667 = uninformed guess

Fixtures

380

57 inconclusive at prediction time

Empirical (Poisson) poisson_pilot_pl_2025

poisson_v1

Hit Rate

49.5%

160 / 323 correct

Wilson 95% CI

44.1% – 55%

Mean Brier Score

0.649

lower is better; 0.667 = uninformed guess

Fixtures

380

57 inconclusive at prediction time

Simulation (Monte Carlo) sim_real_lineup_39_2025_v2_full

monte_carlo_real_lineup_v2

Hit Rate

46.7%

151 / 323 correct

Wilson 95% CI

41.4% – 52.2%

Mean Brier Score

0.669

lower is better; 0.667 = uninformed guess

Fixtures

380

57 inconclusive at prediction time

Simulation (Monte Carlo) sim_real_lineup_39_2025_v2_n100

monte_carlo_real_lineup_v2

Hit Rate

41%

41 / 100 correct

Wilson 95% CI

31.9% – 50.8%

Mean Brier Score

0.703

lower is better; 0.667 = uninformed guess

Fixtures

100

0 inconclusive at prediction time

Simulation (Monte Carlo) sim_real_lineup_39_2025_v2

monte_carlo_real_lineup_v2

Hit Rate

35%

7 / 20 correct

Wilson 95% CI

18.1% – 56.7%

Mean Brier Score

0.757

lower is better; 0.667 = uninformed guess

Fixtures

0 inconclusive at prediction time

⚠ n = 20, below 30 — statistically inconclusive, treat with caution

Simulation (Monte Carlo) sim_real_lineup_39_2025

monte_carlo_real_lineup_v1

Hit Rate

40%

8 / 20 correct

Wilson 95% CI

21.9% – 61.3%

Mean Brier Score

0.777

lower is better; 0.667 = uninformed guess

Fixtures

0 inconclusive at prediction time

⚠ n = 20, below 30 — statistically inconclusive, treat with caution